A brilliant new theory of how society works from one of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our time.
What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown How do elites maintain their dominant position And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power
For decades,complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no-one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity,and then developing new models,he has transformed the way we learn from the past. End Times is the result: a ground-breaking account of how society works.
The lessons,he argues,are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites,income inequality surges. The rich get richer,the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite,frustration with the establishment brims over,often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China,in medieval France,in the American Civil War - and it is happening now.
But while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture,Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored,End Times also points towards a different future: an escape from the patterns of the past.
Publisher: Penguin Books LtdISBN: 9780241553480Number of pages: 368Weight: 583 gDimensions: 242 x 162 x 33 mm
MEDIA REVIEWS
'"History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable": so say most historians. If they were right,we would all be in deep trouble,helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable - by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead,and what we can do about it'- Jared Diamond,author of Guns,Germs and Steel
'Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed,convincing and terrifying analysis in this book'- Angus Deaton,winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
'Scintillating... Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations,but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present,and the crack-up they may be leading to'- Publishers Weekly
'The future-gazing guru I find the most intriguing is a former biologist called Peter Turchin who calls this decade'the turbulent twenties'... he is a complexity scientist who has many fans among rich and powerful people'- Helen Lewis,BBC Radio 4
'Extraordinary... Turchin is a practitioner of "cliodynamics," an ambitious attempt to apply complexity theory and much else to human history. End Times is the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work'- Niall Ferguson
'Turchin is the academic of the moment'- Janan Ganesh,Financial Times
'Mr Turchin is something of a celebrity in certain circles and has piqued economists'interest in the discipline of "cliodynamics",which uses maths to model historical change'- Economist
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