This book is about how climate science works and why you should absolutely trust some of its conclusions and absolutely distrust others. Climate change raises new,foundational challenges in science. It requires us to question what we know and how we know it. The subject is important for society but the science is young and history tells us that scientists can get things wrong before they get them right. How,then,can we judge what information is reliable and what is open to question Stainforth goes to the heart of the climate change problem to answer this question. He describes the fundamental characteristics of climate change and shows how they undermine the application of traditional research methods,demanding new approaches to both scientific and societal questions. He argues for a rethinking of how we go about the study of climate change in the physical sciences,the social sciences,economics,and policy. The subject requires nothing less than a restructuring of academic research to enable integration of expertise across diverse disciplines and perspectives.An effective global response to climate change relies on us agreeing about the underlying,foundational,scientific knowledge. Our universities and research institutes fail to provide the necessary clarity - they fail to separate the robust from the questionable - because they do not acknowledge the peculiar and unique challenges of climate prediction. Furthermore,the widespread availability of computer simulations often leads to research becoming divorced from understanding,something that risks undermining the relevance of research conclusions.This book takes the reader on a journey through the maths of complexity,the physics of climate,philosophical questions regarding the origins and robustness of knowledge,and the use of natural science in the economics and policy of climate change.
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Publisher: Oxford University PressISBN: 9780198812937Weight: 800 gDimensions: 240 x 164 x 21 mm
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Climate is,in some respects,highly predictable; yet,in other respects,highly unpredictable. But there is no contradiction. The resolution of this seeming paradox in Predicting Our Climate Future leads in turn to a vision for how humankind must respond to this most important problem of all time.A profound yet very accessible guide to climate science,highlighting the significant uncertainties without apology. This book explains clearly why doubt creates a greater and more urgent need to act now to build a better future.The immense complexity of the climate system raises deep questions about what science can usefully say about the future. David Stainforth navigates philosophical and mathematical questions that could hardly be of greater practical importance. He questions what it is reasonable to ask of climate scientists and his conclusions challenge the way in which science should be conducted in the future.Is the science settled Are climate models rubbish Stainforth's book serves up nuanced answers to big questions in climate science,in an easy conversational style.A thoughtful exploration of the foundations and limitations of climate prediction that explains how its chaotic and probabilistic nature lead to deep uncertainty when assessing climate risk.Predicting Our Climate Future is an erudite and very personal reflection on climate change,the state of climate science,and their implications for the decisions society needs to take. It should be top of the reading list for scientists,practitioners and anyone who wants to truly comprehend the challenge of climate prediction.A provocative contribution to the literature of climate change.Predicting Our Climate Future is an ambitious exploration of a critical topic. It is a recommended read for climate scientists,especially those trying to model the future,for the researchers-in many disciplines-that are focused on understanding and forecasting the physical and human impacts of the coming climate changes,and for policy makers engaged in climate issues.Intelligent,accessible,well reasoned and working very hard to get it's teeth into a complex but vitally important issue.
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